New Leafs, quarter mark of the season thoughts.

We are fast approaching the end of November, over one quarter of the games have been played. So i wanted to take a minute and review a couple of the players that have caught my eye so far. And that's strictly what this blog is, everything i base my opinion on is from what i see. I may look at a few stats here and there. But i try to keep my opinion based on the stats and plays that average fans see.

The first person i want to talk about is Andreas Borgman, i have to admit that i am a huge fan of this kid. A quick look at his numbers which are 2 goals and 4 assists. Nothing special about those numbers, but that's not surprising for a 3rd pairing defenceman. He plays around 14 minutes per game and that is only more than his partner Carrick by about 20 seconds. The number that jumps out at me and one of the things that makes his stand out to me is his number of hits, which is 62 as of today. That is 3rd most hits on the team behind Martin(no surprise) and Komorov. I really enjoy the physicality of his game and i think that is something that will develop to be a big part of his game. Where he played previously overseas hitting was not a big part of his game, so that will only continue to improve the more games he has under his belt. What was a big part of his game in the SHL was offence. Borgman himself has said that he is use to jumping up into the play and carrying the puck into the offensive zone. One thing i have noticed about him, is that if he gets the puck passed to him at the point, the puck is going on net. You can almost count on it. A forward draws in the player who should be covering the point, then the puck slides out to Borgman and his eyes light up. Again, he only has 6 points on the year but in the SHL last year he had a total of 15 points(5 goals, 10 assists). So even with limited minuted and only 2 seconds player play time, his numbers are relatively positive. I would personally like to see him get more time on the power play with his eagerness to shoot the puck. Even if the initial shots don't find the back of the net, it creates lose pucks and rebounds in front of the net. Which is great for powerplay forwards like JVR and Marleau who have made a living around the crease. So overall my opinion of Borgman is that the Leafs scouts have done a great job finding this young man and bringing him over to the NHL. I think he will continue to learn and grow and will eventually become a top 4 defenceman in the NHL. Like always, that's just my opinion.

The second player i want to talk about is Ron Hainsey. Wow. What a workhorse this guy has become for us. Zaitsev and himself practically kill every penalty, every game. 4 miniutes and 40 seconds of PK time per game. His 2 goal and 10 assists are nice, but what really grabs my attention is his minutes on the PK. Also 40 hits and 48 blocks show his willingness to use his body to make plays. He is a steady hand with the puck and rarely does he lose composure and turn the puck over. He also only has 8 PIM, which is surprising for the amount of minutes he logs every game. Hainsey was suppose to be the replacement for Matt Hunwick, but my opinion is that he is not only a replacement for Hunwick, but an improvement. He is a veteran of the league and knows what it takes to win. He is accountable for his actions and expects the same from his teammates, a good leader to have in the dressing room. Some people thought at the time that 3.6M was a lot to pay for him, but considering the minutes he plays and how dependable he is, he deserves every penny of his contract. Another good off season move done by Leafs management.

Again, just my opinion.

So many Leafs in the crease

Questions were raised when the Leafs acquired Pickard from the Golden Knights. A lot of speculation was going around about Pickard replacing McElhinney as the Leafs everyday back up. With McElhinney posting 2, 1 loss and a SV% of .910 that seems to no longer be the case. The Maple Leafs actually have some great depth in the net at the moment. Not only is Freddy playing better of late, posting a .912 SV% over his last 5 starts with a 4-1 record. Which is a great improvement over his stats earlier in the season. Now down with the Marliers, Sparks is playing like a man on a mission. He is 7-2 with a .944 SV%, while playing the 7th most amount of minutes of all goalies in the AHL. That leaves Pickard as odd man out, while he has played well with a .918 SV% and a 3-2 record. 

The reality of this situation is that the Leafs have set themselves up for success in the crease. There are currently some injured goalies and also some who are not playing up to the expectations their respective teams had hope for. Are any of the goalies in the Leafs organization starter material besides Freddy? That is yet to be seen. But at the ages of 24 & 25, Pickard and Sparks are at the age when most goalies show exactly what their true potential is. It is unlikely that either will get any amount of starting minutes unless something unfortunate happens to Freddy. I hate to even think that thought. 

So while it is not optimal for these players to continue to battle it out for playing time in the AHL, it is a good situation for the Leafs. If the right offer was to come along for either of these guys, you have to think that the organization could easily part with one of them. Especially is McElhinney continues to be a solid backup for Freddy on those back to back situations. Those are historically the hardest games to win because unless you're playing against the same team 2 games in a row, the other team on the second game always has the fresher legs and more jump in their game.

So with the team playing better defensive hockey in front of the net, the stats should only continue to climb. And with the stats going in a positive direct, the team will surely follow.

Time will tell
#standwitness

New look Leafs

The Leafs are looking more and more like their former selves. I know its only 2 wins but that's brings them to having 1 more point in the standings than they did at this time last year. Also these 2 wins are in the first 2 games in the current block of 5 games than Babcock likes to evaluate the team on. So far so good. The team still isn't performing at the level that we would like them to be at, but 2 wins is 2 wins. The team is playing better defensively, that is without question. The only question that i have is, are they playing good defence, or does it just look better because they were playing so poorly? Either way i see improvement and that is a good thing. From top to bottom pairings the guys on the blue line are improved from the last 5 games that is for sure. 

Freddy has looked solid the past few games, not just the 2 wins. There was a scary moment in the game against the Wild where his arm got twisted around the post. He continued the game and said afterwords that it could have been a lot worse and but he has no discomfort from it. I think a lot of Leaf fans give Freddy a hard time, there have been some questionable shots that he would like to have back. But more often than not he makes saves that keep the team within striking distance. Even the fans that give Freddy a hard time would cringe at the thought of him being injured for any length of time. Having any of the other goaltenders in the system step in would be a severe drop off in talent. No offence to the other guys, but Freddy is by far the top dog in our system, and starting goaltenders are not easy to come by.

I know the last 2 wins were not against top notch teams. The next 2 games are the ones to watch out for. I don't believe that Boston is the team they were of years gone by, they are on the downswing. That does not mean they are to be taken lightly. The team still has talent and 4 points against any division rival is very important, even if the team isn't expected to be in the playoff run. It's still early but the Bruins will most likely be on the outside looking in come playoff time.

So let's see if the Leafs can get at least 2 more wins out of these next 3 games. The back to back with Boston will be a good challenge, any back to back is. Then the Leafs get another crack at the Devils. But one team at a time. So let's hope the boys in blue get some rest and settle in for a long weekend and skate like the wind.

#standwitness 

Best foot forward

This has been a frustrating road trip to the west coast. The Leafs are 2-1 so far with the only win coming against the banged up Mighty Ducks. Are they still called the Mighty Ducks, or just the Ducks? Who cares i guess, the Leafs won. No team is expected to do well on those long road trips to the west coast but with the expectations around the Leafs this year, every game is expected to be a winner. If this road trip has done nothing but temper expectations that could be a good thing.

The expectations for this team have been unrealistic since training camp. It's not the fault of the teams fan base but the media is who i point my finger at. With so many sports talk shows, bloggers, podcasts and youtubers following and talking about the mighty Maple Leafs the need for content is pressing. There has to be something to talk about at all times. And i feel like that's what happened this off season and training camp. There was not much to talk about besides a couple of positions up for grabs, so the ceiling for this year was set as topic of discussion. Vegas even jumped on board with naming the Leafs as favourites to win the Stanley Cup.

Any realistic fan (that's how i see myself) was happy with the Leafs start, record wise. But the wins were not the way we had hoped they would be. With all the hype a lot of us believe the team would steam roll over any opposition. That has not been the case, all wins so far have been by the skin of their teeth. And that is scary but also why i remain hopeful. I understand that it doesn't make sense to be hopeful for a team that has barely won the games it has won so far. But the fact that the team has a winning record with the very bad defensive play and below average play in net has given me hope. Because when Freddy and the team starts playing any amount of defence, this team will steamroll the opposition.

Tonight is the Last game of this road trip, the only catch is that it is against the Western conference leading St.Louis Blues with 10 wins and 3 losses. If the Leafs are looking for a challenge to put their best foot forward, then tonight is the night. They have to come out of the dressing room ready to play and to play hard if they hope to end this west coast swing on a winning note. This will be a true test and turning point on the first half of the season. That's also an important point, there is still a lot of season left. Lots of teams have ups and downs and still make the playoffs. That's the main goal of the season, to make the playoffs and from there anything can happen. I like Babcocks way of segmenting the season into 5 games at a time. Tonight is also the last game of the third segment, lets get those 2 points and hit the road for home.

#standwitness

Line shuffle

The Leafs are one game into their 4 game road trip. So far, not so good. To be honest i did not watch the San Jose game. I live on the east coast and start time is at 11 and i get up at 5 for work. So i catch all the replays, highlights and podcasts the next day to get as much info as i can. I may try to watch at least the first period tonight because I'm going through hockey withdrawal.

There has been movement in the lineup at practice. Babcock has shuffled the line during the past few games but the latest practice was the first full practice with the usual lines being thrown into a blender. The only line that stayed untouched was the Matthews line, which makes sense. That line is a dominating line and seems to be the only line that contributes on a regular basis. Personally i feel that the written lineup is not something to get to excited or worked up about. I see a lot of comment on social media about who should play where and with who. In reality these lines are very fluid and Babcock changes who he puts out for what circumstance is happening. He will be doing that a lot more until he finds the right balance of scoring and defense.

That's one great thing about this Leafs team, they are going to score. And there is nothing that most teams can do about that. From top to bottom this is a stacked offensive team that you cannot stop. If you put your best defensive players on the ice against Matthews, great, you may slow down Matthews line a bit. But the next shift look who is out. Is it going to be Kadri? Or maybe Marleau? Look who is on the 4th line, it's Marner. And there a other players in the mix that can make you pay.

The problem is defence obviously. And I'm not talking about Gardiner and company. Yes they could play better, and i believe they will play better. Carrick and Borgman are still on a learning curve and i think a lot of fans forget that and are too hard on them. This will be a growing season for both of them from start to finish. That being said it puts a lot of time on the shoulders of the other 4 defenseman. Although they look shaky now and then, they really are a good NHL defense core. Look around the league and a lot of teams are in worse shape. Look at the defensive core that Pittsburg won with, and that helps me sleep at night.

Tonight will be a good game i believe, lots of players being moved around and everyone eager to shut up the critics. Look for a high scoring game and maybe even a shutout for old Freddy, who needs to gain some confidence.

Lets go boys, go get a W

#standwitness

West coast trip

The Leafs experienced their first 2 game losing streak, which was bound to happen eventually during an 82 game season. The defensive play and net minding have been suspect as of late and is the cause of the 2 game losing streak. It has not solely been the defense and goaltenders fault for the poor play. The has also been blown back checking assignments by some key forwards. The reason for the loses are pretty clear and can easily be remedied. But the work has to be put in, there are no easy games in the NHL, every team will compete hard against the Leafs. Especially with all the hype that surrounds them.

Next up is a 4 game west coast swing, involving the top 2 teams in the west. The Kings and the Blues with 19 points each. The Ducks and the Sharks are the other 2 opponents on the road trip and cannot be taken lightly either. The way the Leafs are playing defensively there is no team that they should be taking lightly at this point in the season.

The Leafs have been off to a decent start, record wise. All those early season points will be helpful in the long run, but any losing streak can eat away at those early gains very quickly. The road trip may be a good thing at this point in the season. A lot of people are pointing their finger at Freddy, and some of that may be warranted. But if you look at the numbers the problem is team play. The Leafs quite simply are just not playing well in front of their own net, or anywhere in their own half of the ice.

This should drive home a point that the Leafs are still in the building process. I know that we as fans want our team to win right now, and everything has to happen so quickly. But that's not the reality of the NHL. This is only year 2 of the rebuild, these young forwards are still developing. Which is hard to believe seeing how good they already are, but there are still areas of their game that need work, just like any second year player. The defensive group is not overwhelming by any means, but if they follow the structure given to them by the coaching staff and get support from the forwards, this team can definitely play better than they are at the moment and win with this group.

This road trip will be an interesting test in this early part of the season. The Leafs will either come together as a team and steam roll their opponents, or it will be more of the same. I predict a 3-1 road trip and 1 shutout from Freddy. Some time away from Toronto and the media will help him clear his head and hopefully some adjustments in his timing can be worked on away from the centre of the hockey universe.

Cheese steak in town aka Philly

I'm sure we'd all love to forget the last game against the Canes. What looked like a comeback ended up being the worst game for the Leafs in this early season. They were simple outworked, outplayed and out skated. Babcock was not a happy camper with the team performance and i hope the players were not either. Freddy made some good saves, one really great save that will be a highlight of the year candidate I'm sure.

Today is a new day, its Saturday. And that means hokey night in Canada. Tonight's opponent is the Flyers. The Flyers are just 5-5-0 this year so far. Things to note about the Flyers is their number of shots on goal, which is 9th in the league with 33.3. This is something to watch for because the Leafs allow 33 shots against per game. On those 33 shots the Flyers score 3.4 goals per game while the Leafs allow 3.6 goals per game. So if you are expecting a tight, low scoring game to calm your nerves after the Carolina game, i would skip this game.

I do expect this game to be a better overall team game, especially by Freddy. His numbers are not very promising this year so far. But i am not one of those fans who jump all over Freddy because this team has been terrible in front of him, and the only reason they have been in some of these games is because Freddy has made some good stops. Can he be better yes. But the Leafs can be a lot better in front of him. If you are trying your best and you see the team in front of you playing well below the effort level you know they can play at, of course your own game is going to drop a level. Players feed off of each other, the team playing poorly in front of his net surely effects his game as well.

So as far as tonight goes i expect a 4-3 result, going either way, but of course I'm rooting for the boys in blue. Expect lots of shots on goal, battles in the face off circles with both teams at or a little better than 50%. The Leafs should hold the physical advantage with 22 hits per game while Philly is at 17 per game. Michal Neuvirth has a good SV% of .925 so that will be the test for the Leafs this game. Can they score, yes we know they can. But can they hold their opposition to less than 3 goal is going to be a key stat for this game. If they cannot i expect Philly to win.

So put your beer in the fridge now and stock up on some snack, i believe to nights game will be exciting and a closely battled match.

#standwitness

Lost Leivo

You have to feel bad for a guy like Leivo. You have all the talent and hockey smarts to make a roster spot on an NHL team. But there's only problem that is holding you back. You are in the Toronto Maple Leafs organization, arguably the franchise with the deepest pool of forwards. But what is this, there an expansion draft. Maybe you'll get picked up by the expansion team and get lots of playing time with a new team. Oh but the Leafs protect you from the draft, they must have plans. Then the season starts and what's this, you again have season tickets in the press box.

I understand why the Leafs have kept Leivo, eventually there will be injuries or there will be a trade of some sort. And in either case he's a good asset to have on the shelf.

JVR took an awkward fall last game and I'm sure Leivo was anxious to see if that would mean a spot for him. At practise today it looks like he just may get a game in, but they could also be giving JVR a day to rest. Either way that's why you have Leivo. He is that box of canned goods you keep in the pantry for an emergence. Hopefully he has a good game and makes good use to the minutes he gets. That will give Babcock the trust he needs and it will also help management if other teams start knocking on the trade door.

But what could you get for a Leivo? I think that in order to get anything of value in return youl have to give him game time. That way other teams can see what he has to offer. Which leaves me to believe that the Leafs have very little desire to trade him, but are content to keep him to use as needed and to potentially use if they trade another forward, maybe one of the UFAs in house. Time will tell.

Defensive issues

I don't think it's a surprise to anyone that the leafs are having issues keeping control of play in their defensive zone. It was an issue last season and without any real changes in the defense group in the off-season, it was bound to be an issue again.
There was 2 changes that did take place, I don't want anyone to think I don't like Hainsey or Borgman. Hainsey is  reliable stay at home defensemen and Borgman has a lot of upside. The same can be said for Rosen.

But that's not really much change from last year. Hainsey is comparable to Hunwick and the 2 youngsters are is an improvement over Marincin, it's just not enough of an improvement.

Now the leafs have Mr.Polak back under contract, which had sent Rosen to the AHL. Which is only good news for Rosen because now he will have real playing time to develop. Which leaves me to think that either Borgman/Polak/Carrick will split the bottom pairing or that Borgman will be sent down to the AHL shortly as well.

If Borgman follows Rosen down to the AHL my only concern will be that we now have a logjam of young defensemen fighting for playing time with the Marlies. While competition for playing time is good, you need to have minutes for these talented kids to play and to become the NHL defensemen we hope they become. It is a good problem to have that will help fill holes in the future.

That leaves me to think we will not see the leafs make a trade for a "stud" dman. The leafs brass know they have a lot of young talent that will make their way to th NHL. This is a process to build a winning team that I think management knows takes more than 2 years. The media and some fans are hyped about the team, which is great and we should be. But don't let the excitement shadow the fact that this is a team still building and in no hurry to give away the assets they have just because it's what people want them to do. Follow the plan, build the team slowly and have a competitive team for years to come.

#standwitness

Maple Leafs UFAs

We all know that some tough decisions are coming for the Toronto Maple Leafs after this season. They have 3 keys players coming up to the end of their contracts. Bozak, Komarov and JVR who have all played for the leafs for a number of years are in their final years.

JVR is a very skilled winger who posted 29 goals and 62 points while playing all 82 games last year. James is currently making 4.5 mil per season.

Komarov is a gritty forward who posted 14 goals and 32 points in 82 games last year. He is currently making 2.9 mil per season.

Bozak is a talented face-off man who posted 18 goals and 55 points in 78 games last year. He is making 4.2 mill this year.

My opinion is that there is no way to bring back all 3 of them, and with the winger depth the leafs have there is no reason to bring them back. I don't see anyone who can immediately step into JVRs spot and put up 30 goals. Yes Kapanen, Soshnikov, Johnsson, and Bracco are all talented wingers but they are a few years away from being at the same level as JVR. On the other hand Komarov can be easily replaced with any one of those young forwards. They may not bring the grit and physical presence that Komarov plays with. But with Komarov aging, how much longer can he play the physical game we expect from him. By letting Komarov walk away at the end of the season it opens up a spot for a young forward to move up. Maybe a Leivo?

The only one of the three UFAs that makes sense for the leafs to resign is Bozak in my opinion. The leafs are not very deep up the middle. I read a lot of comments about moving Nylander down to be the second line center. But who wants to tear one of the best lines in hockey apart? I believe if you can keep Nylander and Matthews together that is the best possible situation. By doing that you have Kadri as your second line center and i can't think of any reason why that is not a good thing. Then you can resign Bozak for the third line and depending on how long you sign him you can move him down to the forth line in a couple of years once Moore and Fehr are gone. By then Aaltonen or Gauthier should be knocking on the door to be placed in as the third or fourth line centers.
By only signing Bozak you open 2 forward spots for prospects sitting in the minors while freeing up cap room and keeping the center of the lineup in solid shape.

This being only year 2 of the Shanaplan, and the leafs putting up numbers like they are, i cannot see management making any trades during the season. They want to stay the course and see what they can do with the talent they already have. The only way anyone gets traded is if the team takes a nosedive and is out of contention. Otherwise you keep all 3 until the end of the season and use them for the playoff push then sort things out in the summer. Whatever happens the leafs are on the rise and this journey is fun to be on.

Cautiously optimistic

Here i sit, 33 years old, a lifelong leaf fan. Technically that's not true, i did not come out of the womb a leafs fan. It was in 93' that i became a leafs fan and i was 9. My father was rooting for Montreal and i wanted to be difficult and go against him, so i picked the leafs to cheer for. When i actually paid attention and saw Clark, Gilmour and Sundin with the rest of the cast play. That's when i became a lifelong fan.

I've loved hockey ever since, cheered for the leafs ever since. There have been years where i watched every minute of every game. And other years where i watch only a handful of games. Some say to be a true fan of any sports team you have to know every stat and detail of the teams history. I'll admit there have been times throughout the 24 years of being a leaf fan than i have completely zoned out and stopped paying attention to the team. I have never cheered for another team, i don't jump on bandwagons. But if you've been a leaf fan for any length of time, you know that feeling. The bad years, they were bad. Real bad. 

So like any leaf fan who has lived through those dark times i find myself so happy with the direction of the team. But in the back of my head i think back to the leaf teams who have given us promise in the past. Some people say you cannot draw comparisons to past leaf teams and players. And maybe they're right. Can you compare Matthews to a Sundin? Anderson to a Potvin? Nylander to an Andreychuk? No you cant. But you can compare that feeling of excitement to previous leaf teams. That's what make me cautiously optimistic. We have felt this thrill of being good before.

This is not the best team in Maple Leafs history. But it is the best one in recent memory. We cannot get ahead of ourselves, lets not rush this opportunity with the depth of talent we have. I say "we" but in reality none of us have any say on what the team does with its assets. This management has pulled us from the valley floor and pushed us up this mountain. We are not at the peak just yet, but i believe it is within sight. 

Don't let the overwhelming force that is the Toronto sports media make you delusional to the path ahead. This is a long journey and we are only at the beginning of year 2. After being a fan for so many years of bad leafs teams. We can wait a year or 2 more to reach that peak. Because when we do, that will be the greatest view in all the land. So let's stop with the "let's trade this guy" or "we need to trade for a defenseman" talk. Let's watch these kids grow, let's see what our prospects will grow into. This is a marathon not a sprint.

I am very excited about the team we have, and these are just my thoughts and opinions. I've never written anything before, so this is all trial and error.  

#GOLEAFSGO